RBs & TEs in the NFL passing game

September 27, 2005

By John Clifford

 

 

With 1:30 left in Super Bowl XXXVI, John Madden was a strong advocate from the booth for playing for overtime.  He, and observers of the NFL everywhere, have since learned to revere the likes of J.R. Redmond and Jermaine Wiggins in the passing game.  Well, not exactly...

 


New England Patriots at 1:30, (1st play from scrimmage 1:21)
 1-10 NE 17 (1:21)

T.Brady pass to J.Redmond to NE 22 for 5 yards (D.Bly, L.Fletcher).

 2-5 NE 22 (:57)

T.Brady pass to J.Redmond to NE 30 for 8 yards (A.Williams, T.Polley).

 1-10 NE 30 (:41)

T.Brady pass incomplete.

 2-10 NE 30 (:41)

T.Brady pass to J.Redmond pushed ob at NE 41 for 11 yards (T.Polley, K.Herring).

 1-10 NE 41 (:33)

T.Brady pass incomplete.

 2-10 NE 41 (:29)

T.Brady pass to T.Brown ran ob at SL 36 for 23 yards (A.Archuleta).

 1-10 STL 36 (:21)

T.Brady pass to J.Wiggins to SL 30 for 6 yards (D.McCleon, L.Little).

 2-4 STL 30 (:07)

T.Brady pass incomplete.

 3-4 STL 30 (:07)

A.Vinatieri 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-L.Paxton, Holder-K.Walter.

NE 20 STL 17, 9 plays, 53 yards, 1:30 drive, 15:00 elapsed
END OF GAME - FInal: New England 20, St. Louis 17 

 

Since that game-winning last drive which brought Tom Brady his first hardware with more to follow, J.R. Redmond has faded into obscurity and Jermaine Wiggins has found a meaningful role on his 3rd team in his 5th season of his career.  Since that drive, it's become apparent that with the exception of Brady, those other participants are easily replaced.  But their roles within Brady's offense isn't.

 

That drive in early 2002 is a microcosm of how some teams have carved out success by embracing their tight ends and running backs, not only in the passing game, but more than previously, to the point where there's significance in their contribution, namely winning big playoff games.  Was Jermaine Wiggins' catching nearly as many passes in the 2001 playoffs as he had during the entire regular season, and the significance of helping to put his franchise on its championship track, a leading indicator?   Perhaps.

 

If you believe there's been an evolution of how NFL teams have embraced tight ends and running backs, you would expect it to be reflected in the numbers.  Sure enough, it is.

  • In 2001, NFL teams threw the ball on a total of 15,658 plays with 3,372 receptions by RBs and TEs – that's 21.5% of all pass plays.

  • In 2002, NFL teams threw the ball on a total of 17, 039 plays with 4,005 receptions by RBs and TEs – that's 23.5% of all pass plays.  With an additional 1,381 pass plays in the NFL in 2002, 633 or 46% went to the RBs and TEs.

  • In 2003, NFL teams threw the ball on a total of 16,393 plays with 4,375 receptions by RBs and TEs – that's 26.7% of all pass plays.  There were fewer total pass plays in 2003 from the prior season, but 370 additional receptions by RBs and TEs.

  • In 2004, NFL teams threw the ball on a total of 16,299 plays with 4,334 going to RBs and TEs – that's 26.6% of all pass plays.  Approximately the same number of pass plays and passes to RBs and TEs.

There is, however, an interesting aspect to the 2004 numbers that, in effect, continue to promote this trend – the Pittsburgh Steelers.  Since their trip to Super Bowl XXX, when they had 121 receptions by RBs and TEs, the Steelers have routinely thrown less than most teams to their RBs, and particularly TEs.

 

In the case of 2004, when the Steelers had fewer pass attempts than any team, they still managed to throw less frequently to the RB, the TE, and the TE and RB combined, than all other NFL teams.  Combined with the fact that the Steelers returned to the ground game with 618 rushing attempts, going from 31st in rushing attempts in 2003 to 1st in 2004 and the Steelers decline in pass attempts alone is greater than the leagues total decline year over year in 2004.  So discounting for the Steelers going in one direction, the rest of the NFL continued to spread the ball around through the air with increased frequency.

 

What's the tactical value of embracing this trend or the cost in resisting it?  Perhaps the answer can be measured by the disparity in results between the Steelers regular season success and offensive efficiency contrasted by the lack thereof in the post-season, particularly against the New England Patriots.  For more on that I recommend the following:  ColdHardFootballFacts.com – Cowher's formula for failure

 


COMBINED 2004 TEAM RB & TE RECEIVING STATS

Team

 Total Att.

TE/RB

rec %

Win

%

 Rec 

 Yds 

 Yds/G 

TDs

20+

40+

SD     450 38.0% .750     171    1,687    105.4 17 18 4
KC     561 36.4% .438     204    2,207    137.9 14 28 2
MIN     552 35.5% .500     196    1,957    122.3 8 21 1
SEA     532 34.2% .562     182    1,543      96.4 3 7 0
PHI     547 33.1% .812     181    1,748    109.3 15 18 3
NYJ     438 32.0% .625     140    1,427      89.2 10 18 3
DAL     519 29.9% .375     155    1,464      91.5 9 16 1
TB     512 29.7% .312     152    1,268      79.3 8 12 3
BAL     465 29.5% .562     137    1,144      71.5 6 9 1
DET     505 29.3% .375     148    1,182      73.9 5 11 0
CHI     471 29.3% .312     138    1,080      67.5 6 10 1
OAK     582 28.4% .312     165    1,397      87.3 5 12 0
NYG     475 28.2% .375     134       993      62.1 8 7 0
ATL     395 28.1% .688     111    1,372      85.8 8 21 5
GB     598 26.9% .625     161    1,335      83.4 13 14 1
TEN     589 26.3% .312     155    1,189      74.3 8 9 0
NE     485 26.0% .875     126    1,243      77.7 11 14 1
MIA