With 1:30
left in Super Bowl XXXVI, John Madden was a strong
advocate from the booth for playing for overtime.
He, and observers of the NFL everywhere, have since
learned to revere the likes of J.R. Redmond and Jermaine
Wiggins in the passing game. Well, not exactly...
New England Patriots at
1:30, (1st play from
scrimmage 1:21)
1-10
NE 17 (1:21)
T.Brady pass to
J.Redmond
to NE 22 for 5 yards (D.Bly,
L.Fletcher).
2-5
NE 22 (:57)
T.Brady pass to
J.Redmond
to NE 30 for 8 yards (A.Williams,
T.Polley).
1-10
NE 30 (:41)
T.Brady pass incomplete.
2-10
NE 30 (:41)
T.Brady pass to
J.Redmond
pushed ob at NE 41 for 11
yards (T.Polley, K.Herring).
1-10
NE 41 (:33)
T.Brady pass incomplete.
2-10
NE 41 (:29)
T.Brady pass to T.Brown ran
ob at SL 36 for 23 yards (A.Archuleta).
1-10
STL 36 (:21)
T.Brady pass to
J.Wiggins
to SL 30 for 6 yards (D.McCleon,
L.Little).
2-4
STL 30 (:07)
T.Brady pass incomplete.
3-4
STL 30 (:07)
A.Vinatieri 48 yard field
goal is GOOD, Center-L.Paxton,
Holder-K.Walter.
Since that
game-winning last drive which brought Tom Brady his first
hardware with more to follow, J.R. Redmond has faded into obscurity
and Jermaine Wiggins has found a meaningful role on his 3rd team in
his 5th season of his career. Since that drive, it's
become apparent that with the exception of Brady, those other
participants are easily replaced. But their roles within
Brady's offense isn't.
That drive in
early 2002 is a microcosm of how some teams have carved out
success by embracing their tight ends and running backs, not
only in the passing game, but more than previously, to the point
where there's significance in their contribution, namely winning
big playoff games. Was Jermaine Wiggins' catching nearly
as many passes in the 2001 playoffs as he had during the entire
regular season, and the significance of helping to put his
franchise on its championship track, a leading indicator?
Perhaps.
If you believe
there's been an evolution of how NFL teams have embraced tight
ends and running backs, you would expect it to be reflected in
the numbers. Sure enough, it is.
In 2001,
NFL teams threw the ball on a total of 15,658 plays with
3,372 receptions by RBs and TEs – that's 21.5% of all pass
plays.
In 2002,
NFL teams threw the ball on a total of 17, 039 plays with
4,005 receptions by RBs and TEs – that's 23.5% of all pass
plays. With an additional 1,381 pass plays in the NFL
in 2002, 633 or 46% went to the RBs and TEs.
In 2003,
NFL teams threw the ball on a total of 16,393 plays with
4,375 receptions by RBs and TEs – that's 26.7% of all pass
plays. There were fewer total pass plays in 2003 from
the prior season, but 370 additional receptions by RBs and
TEs.
In 2004,
NFL teams threw the ball on a total of 16,299 plays with
4,334 going to RBs and TEs – that's 26.6% of all pass plays.
Approximately the same number of pass plays and passes to
RBs and TEs.
There is, however,
an interesting aspect to the 2004 numbers that, in effect,
continue to promote this trend – the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Since their trip to Super Bowl XXX, when they had 121 receptions
by RBs and TEs, the Steelers have routinely thrown less than
most teams to their RBs, and particularly TEs.
In the case of 2004,
when the Steelers had fewer pass attempts than any team, they
still managed to throw less frequently to the RB, the TE, and
the TE and RB combined, than all other NFL teams. Combined
with the fact that the Steelers returned to the ground game with
618 rushing attempts, going from 31st in rushing attempts in
2003 to 1st in 2004 and the Steelers decline in pass attempts
alone is greater than the leagues total decline year over year
in 2004. So discounting for the Steelers going in one
direction, the rest of the NFL continued to spread the ball
around through the air with increased frequency.
What's the tactical
value of embracing this trend or the cost in resisting it?
Perhaps the answer can be measured by the disparity in results
between the Steelers regular season success and offensive
efficiency contrasted by the lack thereof in the post-season,
particularly against the New England Patriots. For more on
that I recommend the following:
ColdHardFootballFacts.com
– Cowher's formula for failure