Right
about the time that brightly colored leaves borne on
chilly autumn breezes are scraping across the parking lots
of the Notre Dame campus at South Bend, draft enthusiasts
will be wondering why the name of Justin Tuck appears on
so many statistical leader boards, but not on the draft
pundits’ “big boards.” He’ll doubtlessly sit at or near
the top of the sacks leader board as well as tackles for
loss, and has already garnered some attention from various
publications as a dark horse Heisman candidate, but when
you look at the best prospects for defensive end or
linebacker, you’ll be hard pressed to find him in the top
five of anyone’s list. It’s not for lack of talent, he
has plenty, but the very thing which keeps him off those
boards, will drop him in the draft.
The
tradition and annual hype of the Fighting Irish mandate
the scouring of the roster by NFL scouts in the hopes of
landing a prospect. Though the stringent academic
requirements have whittled away at the numbers of the
pro-worthy, there will always be an athlete somewhere on
the roster demanding the attention of the scouts. One of
the most watched this year promises to be Tuck, but odds
are that many of the scouts won’t quite know what category
to place him in. He may well be the best “‘tweener”
available in the draft this year.
Tuck
came to the Irish as a linebacker and was eventually moved
to defensive end. For a college defensive end, his size
is acceptable on the end of the line, but in the NFL, he
would be overmatched in the running game, an area of his
game he has struggled with in the past. The Irish list
him at 6’5” and 252 lbs., and he is sometimes rumored to
have added weight and be in excess of 260 lbs.
Invariably, it appears that he drops the weight after
several practices or games and is likely to be closer to
245 lbs. Tuck’s body fat routinely drops to the 5%
range. It’s a problem women all over the world would love
to be fighting, but for a player who will lose out on
millions of dollars because of his size, it’s more than a
mere annoyance.
Since
offensive tackles would outweigh him by as much as 100
pounds, he can’t be listed among the top defensive ends in
the draft. The only thing left to do is to project him as
a linebacker — a position he hasn’t played in three
years. His speed is evident on every play. He routinely
chases down plays from behind and is extremely difficult
for running backs to get outside on.
While
finishing third on the team last year with 73 tackles,
with 19 of them being for loss and forcing 3 fumbles, Tuck
set the school record for sacks last year with 13.5 and
figures to match or surpass that total this year using a
nice array of swim moves, outside speed rush, and even
some spin moves for good measure. These moves were
prominently on display in the Stanford game last year
during which he racked up 4 sacks on a variety of moves,
and showed a relentless drive. On one occasion, he strung
together three different moves in rapid succession like a
prize-fighter puts together combinations of punches. That
ability to string together a vicious ballet of evasive
moves, power moves, and speed moves makes him incredibly
difficult to handle for any length of time. A good and
sure tackler, he takes outstanding angles and fights off
his blocker like a junkyard dog.
Once
he’s in the NFL, he’s destined to move back to linebacker,
most likely for a team which employs the 3-4 defense. As
a 3-4 strong side linebacker, Tuck could use the skills he
has learned against the run, a part of his game sorely
lacking early on in his career with the Irish, but which
has improved steadily every year. Where he would be
overmatched by bigger offensive tackles would be when he
is placed in the down position on running downs;
otherwise, he will more than hold his own against tight
ends and will prove a very elusive target to block if a
pulling lineman is assigned to him. He will have to learn
the art of pass coverage basically from scratch, but being
in the up position will allow him to use his speed and
moves more effectively in the pass rush.
One
thing which may set him back come draft time is a history
of chronic shoulder problems and nagging injuries. He was
out of spring practice this year due to them and has
missed time in the past for the same reasons. In the
first four games of 2003, he was slowed by the injuries,
but it shows what a force he is capable of being that he
managed to overcome that to set the Notre Dame sack mark.
Also, he doesn’t appear to recognize plays as quickly as
one would like which could be a problem when he’s
switched to linebacker. Most of his sacks and tackles in
the past have come when coach Willingham has unleashed him
and sent him shooting the gap or racing outside, not in
recognition and reaction.
Something else, which is bound to give scouts pause before
pulling the trigger on him, is that he is self-effacing to
the point of exaggeration. Humility is tolerated, but
Tuck carries it to an extreme sometimes and that can
easily be interpreted as a lack of self-confidence, though
I doubt that’s the case. Tuck may often tell anyone
who’ll listen that his heir apparent Victor Abiamiri will
surpass him in every way, yet he continues to start ahead
of Abiamiri, and with good reason.
No
matter what sort of season Tuck manages to have this year,
he is unlikely to put together a year that would propel
him into the first round of the draft. If he continues to
improve against the run and continues to show he is a
force to be reckoned with in the pass rush, he may well be
selected somewhere in the second round, but, even if he
has some sort of set back, injury-wise or regressing in
his run defense, he is far too good of an athlete to last
too long. Someone will take a chance on him and it’s
likely to be a team with a 3-4 defense. Yes, there is a
place in the NFL for “‘tweeners.”
